drawing some lines (any feedback on my first price analysis?)

powerful

After a bit of price discovery a new pattern is forming.

Even though I was foreshadowing the last outbreak out of the price range I was a little bit to conservative on price potential. With the new pattern I do think 450 - 490$ is plausible.

That would be quite a big jump, yes. But we already have the momentum with the last outbreak being not long ago and it would land in the range of 1 - 2 moths before ATH.

positive indicators:

• FCMP ++ etc. beta stressnet live on the 6th. May (https://xcancel.com/monero/status/2047387048382791899#m)
• Tether freezing IRGC fiatcoin (https://xcancel.com/JamesWynnReal/status/2047589388675101088#m)
• recent hacks

& mostly the general feeling

my feels say it would have potential to go above the described range, let's see in a week.

To 1k we go.

Actually this wasn't the big breakout I was expecting, yet.

I'd argue we are in an accumulation phase now:
EMA50 matches ATH, but not yet EMA25 or MA7. Set up for more volatility. RSI 1D at fair value, roughly.

If it goes below 514 we should be worried. Between now 550 and 514 there is potential downside I would say. Time to get more and then hopefully in short to mid term (1 to max. 2 months) we will shorts get wrecked and a new ATH.

It's a strong setup so I think 1K is possible :k

That's my current analysis.

@esna7
'no potential downside' There's always potential downside no matter what.

If you're holding atm, sell whilst its up or just hodl on but never let a red candle trigger a sell because you'll probably end up buying back higher. Long or short don't try to time the breakdown its not worth it.

Thats my 2c anyway.
Some lines of my own

@Nebuchadnezzar_II Nice lines.

I actually said "Between now 550 and 514 there IS potential downside".

I'd say:
Buy before the 15th of August or it's going to be a lot more expensive :)
Not saying I am right 100%, but that's the bet I am taking ;)

@Nebuchadnezzar_II Interesting you are not using a regression trend.
I didn't check before but it's actually quite close to my numbers of 514 as low and also that the RSI says it's fairvalue. Upside is always more unkown I guess

I am sorry, but maybe we need to consider this more of a diary at this point. I want to keep track if my analysis were correct.

On my first one I must say, I was fucking spot fucking ON.
1st May opens at 386$
3rd May opens at 390$

I was to exited for this one though: Apr 25, 2026 4:43 PM

Rookie mistake, price range to high and time frame to short.
But it did manage to go to 440$ on the 6th

Which honestly considering that I only started drawing lines at that time is quite a good result with a predicted 18.7% price increase :D

To sad I don't actually trade and just keep my few XMR stashed away

@esna7
I completely misread read that sorry!
I'm enjoying this thread anyway.

For any trend, support usually sits on a straight line whereas resistance is a lot more random, for some reason. Thats why I just draw parallel lines between the different supports, and the price usually respects those lines. I notice with this recent xmr trend that the old resistance became the new support after the bigger pumps.

I've never actually used regression, apart from for researching statistical arbitrage, which is a very mathematically interesting trading strategy which I never actually put any money into but was fun experimenting with.

Funny we got very similar lines but you're expecting a breakout and I'm expecting a breakdown. That's the thing about these lines; they can quantify a trend, but they can't tell us how long that trend will last and how it will end. There's an argument to be made on either side but one thing I'm sure we can agree on is to expect more volatility at these prices.