@Geek
I think you're spot on.
I think xmr/btc pair will leak value over the long term.
Because the 'traditional' use is like you said, transact in xmr, bank with btc.
But maybe I'm wrong, since as far as I can tell, the whole market inherits pseudonymity from xmr privacy. So if certain digital assets stop following bitcoin (eg: RWAs) then monero might find a some uncorrelated demand.
Btc is a bank without the bank. Xmr is flying money without the gangsters.
Each chain's dominance of its respective market relies on fundamentally different mining economies which define their respective fates.
I don't see an obvious argument that either could usurp the other or that either is unsustainable!
My conspiracy theory belief is that btc will one day adopt a tail emission. Those hodlers must pay their security bill because there's no free lunch.