"Bitcoin is not a Ponzi scheme. A Ponzi requires a central operator promising returns and paying early investors with funds from later ones. Bitcoin has no issuer, no promoter, and no guaranteed return—just an open, decentralized monetary network driven by code and market demand."
While Saylor is correct that Bitcoin is not a Ponzi scheme, I find it hilarious that he outright describes his own company.
For those of you that are not familiar Strategy Inc is almost entire propped up by their BTC holdings as of now they own roughly 739,000 BTC while their old software business brings in only roughly $500 million a year in revenue.
Effectively while promising that Bitcoin will only go perpetually up (As of course every asset can only go perpetually up..)he then contiues to sell more shares as the price climns. Taking out loans against his shares to then purchase more bitcoin.
Above is a simple drawing to describe their enterprise. Of course all of this is just my own opinion..
After seeing this post on X I thought this would be the perfect time to show our first Forecast on this platform and introduce the users here to Fortuna Economics.
Our models called the All time high in Bitcoin to the Quarter, the Month, and the Week. Now our Quarterly for Bitcoin are showing a long-term move down into Q3 2027 while also showing a Yearly Decline into 2027. This correlates nicely with our Yearly Arrays for Strategy Inc (MSTR).
Bitcoin Quarterly Arrays:
Viewing our Quarterly Arrays I've annotated it for you. Q4 2025 was a high bar in our Arrays which of course gave us the High in BTC ~$126,000 the Arrays then show an opposite reaction into Q2 2026 and then a further Rising Trend into Q4 2026. The computer Forecasted this back in 2025 that we'd decline into Q2 2026. Ultimately Q4 2026 should result in a Rally but thereafter unless a major Cycle inversion occurs we should see BTC Decline into Q4 2027.
For a Cycle Inversion to occur in BTC we'd need Q4 2026 to at least Break the High of Q4 2025.
BTC Yearly Timing Arrays:
Here you can see that we have a Rising trend (rising in terms of bar height) into the Turning Point target of 2027. Bitcoin while it formed its intraday High in 2025 the highest closing occurred on the Turning Point year of 2025 indicating a overall decline into the year of 2027. Currently only a surpassing of the high of 2025 would indicate higher highs moving into 2027.
Finally let's take a look at what our computer Fortuna is showing for Strategy inc (MSTR)
Here are the Yearly arrays for MSTR with 2025 being marked clearly as a Turning Point. Thereafter the computer forecasts a 3 year trend into 2028 which correlates with the above BTC Yearly arrays quite nicely.
Viewing the Candlestick chart for MSTR Yearly view we see that our prior turning points as forecasted by our computer (BEFORE THE EVENT) were absolutely correct. In 2023 the market turned ack up into 2025 which was a Turning Point year and we see so far that 2026 has broken 2025's low. This all indicates that MSTR should decline into 2028.. All in all sorry to dissapoint but our Arrays are not Bullish on Bitcoin for the foreseeable future. We will do a far more in depth view in BTC in a later post going into our models calling the High for 2025 forecasted back in January of 2025 as well as including updated price targets with probability metrics as measured by our computer.
If anyone is curious about our credibility feel free to go through our twitter to view our Forecasts in 2025.
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